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TWD going DOWN....

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Re: TWD going DOWN....

Postby buzzkill1 » 30 Apr 2016, 09:18

RockOn wrote:
I am massively LONG the USD via long-dated derivatives contracts


Rest in peace
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Re: TWD going DOWN....

Postby buzzkill1 » 16 Jul 2016, 11:29

TWD is falling apart. Sell all your TWDs for USDs now if you want to survive
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Re: TWD going DOWN....

Postby headhonchoII » 16 Jul 2016, 13:43

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0ZG1CE

Indeed the worse the Taiwan economy does and the lower the interest rates go the better the NTD does. This makes a lot of sense. :loco:

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0ZG1CE
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Re: TWD going DOWN....

Postby buzzkill1 » 16 Jul 2016, 23:49

headhonchoII wrote:http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0ZG1CE

Indeed the worse the Taiwan economy does and the lower the interest rates go the better the NTD does. This makes a lot of sense. :loco:

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0ZG1CE


Right, USD strength was a given. No one could have seen this coming.

Taiwan's real interest rate is still much higher than the US (positive vs negative), so why wouldn't a strengthening TWD vs USD make sense? USD strength in anticipation of rate hikes is a gimmick that's almost completely over. Expect increasing TWD strength later this year and next year when US weakness becomes more obvious and looser monetary policy follows, regardless if Taiwan is easing too.

In the short to mid term, a Chinese debt crisis and yuan crash could bring the TWD down quite a bit. But even if this happens, long term the TWD will gain on the USD

Lets see what helicopter money will do
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Re: TWD going DOWN....

Postby Icon » 18 Jul 2016, 17:12

Dunno but all the local insurance and investment companies are crying doomsday, doing their best sales pitch based on "the Central Bank will lowe rthe inetrests and so will we, so get this product at a better rate now or never!"

All I care about is how expensive a trip to Japan will be down the road.
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