Click here to go to our new forums at http://tw.forumosa.com
If you are a Forumosan Regular, when you log in for the FIRST TIME, you must RESET your password by using the Password Recovery system.

Usernames on the new forums must not contain any SPACES and must end with LETTER or a NUMBER; if yours does, you will be prompted to change your Username
Contact us at admin(at)forumosa(dot)com or @forumosa on Twitter or on our Facebook Page if you have any questions or problems logging back in

Global Economic Death Spiral

A resource forum for those interested in buying, selling, or developing a business; for questions about retirement plans; investing and basically any aspect of acquiring, keeping and increasing one's personal stash of filthy lucre.

Moderator: Charlie Phillips

Re: Global Economic Death Spiral

Postby BrentGolf » 26 Dec 2015, 00:31

agentsmith wrote:
BrentGolf wrote:
agentsmith wrote:
Would you be any more redundant? Of course a recession is coming, and when it does there won't be a single person on earth surprised by it. The recession cycle is about 6-7 years on average, so guess what? But how on earth do you think the raising of rates has anything to do with that? Why do you think Fed policy has anything to do with that? Recessions happen all the time, it means nothing. It is a completely normal part of the business cycle. The US had a great recovery compared to the rest of the world, and now it's probably about time it takes a breather.

You're one of these guys who thinks he's right ever 7 years because there happens to be something called a business cycle and every 6 or 7 years a recession comes. For one year you'll be saying see, see, I told you. Then you'll have 6 more years of being wrong...



The US is in a recession and some say depression. I don't know what to make of Gerald Celente,Max Keiser and all the rest that say the next great depression is just around the corner. I figure they can keep cooking the books for another few yrs as long as the global participants keep participating. I know shit about economics but have been wondering if the Fed/World Back could /would cancel debt to avoid a catastrophe. After all it is just money printed out of thin air.



Well there are also people who believe in alien abductions, Bigfoot, and unicorns. What people believe doesn't make it true though...

No the US is not in a recession. GDP is still comfortably positive and unemployment is the lowest it's been in nearly a decade. If you want to say the US has problems that's one thing because there certainly are many to talk about, but to say the US is in a recession is just the silliest thing possible. Recession actually has a painfully simplistic definition. If someone can't decide whether the number 2 is larger than the number 0, I'm pretty sure they don't have much to add to the conversation... :whistle:



So what your saying is trust the govt story and anyone who contradicts these numbers or exposes statistical lies are conspiracy nut jobs? Talk about painfully simplistic.



I am not one to trust government and I do question numbers and data all the time. However, I do it with actual research and evidence based exploration of the facts.

So if you want to expose government numbers and say we are actually in a recession when literally ever single data point we have points to the contrary (and by a mile by the way) I suggest you actually do something beyond just making a random baseless claim without providing one iota of evidence. That would be a start. :)
Market leading investment returns with unparalleled risk management. Aspiring to help people rid themselves of the burdens of the financial industry and get on the right track to financial freedom.

http://www.VolatilityTradingStrategies.com

http://www.ProsperitasAssetManagement.com

http://www.BrentGolf.com
BrentGolf
Immune to Breathalizers (jiǔ cèce bù chūlái)
Immune to Breathalizers (jiǔ cèce bù chūlái)
 
Posts: 2011
Joined: 10 Dec 2010, 18:20
Location: Taipei, Taiwan



Re: Global Economic Death Spiral

Postby BrentGolf » 12 Jan 2016, 16:07

Image

Deja vu? It was the worst first week of a new year for the stock market ever on record. :eek: For 6 years now every time the market looks like it's going to fall off a cliff buyers come in. At some point one of these scares is going to turn into a panic though. Hopefully everybody who does trade stocks (not me) has either moved to cash or at least has some hedges up. If this is the big one I don't think it should take anybody by surprise.
Market leading investment returns with unparalleled risk management. Aspiring to help people rid themselves of the burdens of the financial industry and get on the right track to financial freedom.

http://www.VolatilityTradingStrategies.com

http://www.ProsperitasAssetManagement.com

http://www.BrentGolf.com
BrentGolf
Immune to Breathalizers (jiǔ cèce bù chūlái)
Immune to Breathalizers (jiǔ cèce bù chūlái)
 
Posts: 2011
Joined: 10 Dec 2010, 18:20
Location: Taipei, Taiwan



Re: Global Economic Death Spiral

Postby buzzkill1 » 30 Mar 2016, 07:11

BrentGolf wrote:I would imagine this means the market should prepare for 3 or 4 more rate hikes next year. 25 basis points per quarterly meeting I would imagine.


:lol:
User avatar
buzzkill1
Scooter Commuter (qí jī chē shàng xià bān)
Scooter Commuter (qí jī chē shàng xià bān)
 
Posts: 609
{ AUTHOR_TOPIC }
Joined: 30 Aug 2012, 10:54
In Taiwan since: 10 Aug 2012



Re: Global Economic Death Spiral

Postby Winston Smith » 11 Jun 2016, 00:52

First major crack in the foundation. Time to get that farm and food stockpile going.

BTMU plans to quit as a primary dealer of Japanese bonds

Tokyo -- Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ is preparing to relinquish its role as a primary dealer of Japanese government bonds as negative interest rates turn the instruments into larger risks, a fallout from massive monetary easing measures by the Bank of Japan.

The role comes with perks such as meetings with the Finance Ministry over bond issuance. But dealers also are required to bid on at least 4% of a planned JGB issuance, which became an increasingly heavy burden for BTMU. The ministry is expected to let the bank resign.

Japan has 22 primary dealers including megabanks and major brokerages. Several foreign brokerages had pulled out before as part of restructuring efforts at home or for other reasons, but BTMU will be the first Japanese institution to quit. . . .
Totalitarianism: a political system in which the state recognizes no limits to its authority and strives to regulate every aspect of public and private life wherever feasible.
Winston Smith
Wild Chicken Bus Driver (yě jī chē sī jī)
Wild Chicken Bus Driver (yě jī chē sī jī)
 
Posts: 1930
Joined: 24 Sep 2011, 09:44
Location: Room 101



Re: Global Economic Death Spiral

Postby buzzkill1 » 18 Jun 2016, 08:55

The FED has yet to make its first rate hike this year, and I'm absolutely STUNNED AND SHOCKED at this development. I can't believe this is happening.

Who could have seen this coming? Where is BrentGolf to help us make sense of all this? :pray:
User avatar
buzzkill1
Scooter Commuter (qí jī chē shàng xià bān)
Scooter Commuter (qí jī chē shàng xià bān)
 
Posts: 609
{ AUTHOR_TOPIC }
Joined: 30 Aug 2012, 10:54
In Taiwan since: 10 Aug 2012



Re: Global Economic Death Spiral

Postby BrentGolf » 18 Jun 2016, 13:22

So the Fed is screwing up and there are clueless people out there who agree with them. We're supposed to be surprised by this? Obviously the Fed should be raising rates. Whether they wake up and actually do or not, we'll see. After the December raise, yeah you're damn right there should have been 3 or 4 more this year, absolutely.

I'm still hopeful we can squeeze a couple rate hikes in this year and maybe get a few more next year. Time is ticking, recession is coming. The average cycle is 6-7 years, and that doesn't account for the massive financial crisis we just came out of. I don't know what the hell the Fed is waiting for, but the economy is running on fumes here. Tick tock, tick tock.
Market leading investment returns with unparalleled risk management. Aspiring to help people rid themselves of the burdens of the financial industry and get on the right track to financial freedom.

http://www.VolatilityTradingStrategies.com

http://www.ProsperitasAssetManagement.com

http://www.BrentGolf.com
BrentGolf
Immune to Breathalizers (jiǔ cèce bù chūlái)
Immune to Breathalizers (jiǔ cèce bù chūlái)
 
Posts: 2011
Joined: 10 Dec 2010, 18:20
Location: Taipei, Taiwan



Re: Global Economic Death Spiral

Postby buzzkill1 » 18 Jun 2016, 23:59

BrentGolf wrote:So the Fed is screwing up and there are clueless people out there who agree with them. We're supposed to be surprised by this?


Not cheer-leading the FED anymore? A couple of years ago on the gold thread you said the FED did a damn fine job, but their only fault was they didn't do enough stimulus. I suppose if their balance sheet was double what it is now then everything would be awesome :loco:

Obviously the Fed should be raising rates.


Obviously the FED lost its window to raise rates years ago. Corporate earnings peaked 3Q 2014 and have gone down ever since, and are now negative. Ex-Dallas FED governor Richard Fisher even admitted on CNBC the FED front-loaded the stock market to create a wealth effect. It obviously created a wealth effect for wealthy shareholders. The bottom 80% have lower net real wealth than before the recession, according to the FED's own data. I pointed this out in a previous post on this thread, something you refused to accept because it ran against your own conscience. Talk about clueless :roll:

Other signs the FED missed the window to raise rates:

1. Industrial production has now declined for nine months in a row. We have never seen this happen outside of a recession in all of U.S. history.

2. U.S. commercial bankruptcies have risen on a year over year basis for seven months in a row and are now up 51 percent since September.

3. The delinquency rate on commercial and industrial loans has been rising since January 2015.

4. Total business sales in the United States have been steadily dropping since the middle of 2014. No, I did not say 2015. Total business sales have been in decline for nearly two years now, and we just found out that they dropped again…

Total business sales in the US did in April what they’ve been doing since July 2014: they dropped: -2.9% from a year ago, to $1.28 trillion (not adjusted for seasonal differences and price changes), the Censuses Bureau reported on Tuesday. That’s where sales had been in April 2013!

5. U.S. factory orders have been dropping for 18 months in a row.

6. The Cass Shipping Index has been falling on a year over year basis for 14 consecutive months.

7. Goldman Sachs has its own internal tracker of the U.S. economy, and it has fallen to the lowest level since the last recession.

8. JPMorgan’s “recession indicators” have risen to the highest level that we have seen since the last recession.

9. Federal tax receipts and state tax receipts usually both start to fall as we enter a new recession, and that is precisely what is taking place right now.

10. The Federal Reserve’s Labor Market Conditions Index has been falling for five months in a row.

11. The employment numbers that the government released for last month were the worst that we have seen in six years.

12. According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, layoff announcements at major firms are running 24 percent higher this year than they were at this time last year.

13. Online job postings on the business networking site LinkedIn have been declining steadily since February after 73 months in a row of growth.

14. The number of temporary workers in the United States peaked and started falling precipitously before the recession of 2001 even started. The exact same thing happened just prior to the beginning of the 2008 recession. So would it surprise you to learn that the number of temporary workers in the United States peaked in December and has fallen dramatically since then?

How about a simple chart to put things in perspective?

Image


The truth is the FED never had a window to raise rates without crashing the economy, and that's why you're so confused Brent. Think about it, during the peak of the "recovery" the US had 1/4 the interest rate it had during the depths of the recession post- .com bubble crash and 911. All the FED did post-2008 was intercept market-force price discovery while inflating asset prices, something they've already admitted. The business cycle has already turned and we'll be entering a recession with less than half of a percent FED rate. There is no historical precedent for this.

You were wrong about the FED because you've been wrong about the economy the whole time. You've been parroting the FED's conclusions for years as if they were your own, believing all their statements and analysis. They scammed you Brent :lol:

If you were just half right the FED would have started raising rates a long time ago. But it can't and it won't because it knows it created its own trap, yet up until now you've been singing its praises. Anyone with a hint of economic sense could have seen this coming.

The best thing the FED could have done is let the banks go under in 2008 and restructure. The US already has the mechanisms in place to protect depositors in the event of mass banking failure, as I've pointed out in a previous post on the "TWD going down" thread. Yes, it would have been a horrible few years, but we would have taken our medicine and reinvigorated the economy in the process. That's what market-driven deleveraging is all about. The FED interfered with this important component of the business cycle, but in doing so has only postponed a much higher price to pay later on. They've taken short-term pain for long-term gain and replaced it with short-term gain for long-term pain.

So what happens next?

The real question is what will the FED do as the economy continues to decline? Will it standby and allow a market correction even if that means a worse crash than 2008? I'm guessing the FED will do something, and that will be the beginning of a much larger crisis in the near future.

The USD is in big trouble if nothing changes. Inflation is starting to tick up and the FED is powerless to raise rates. Much of USD strength has come from expectations of rate normalization and the whole "cleanest shirt in the laundry" meme. How much of that strength will continue if the FED not only doesn't raise rates, but has to lower rates and do more QE to keep the economy afloat? The US already has the lowest real interest rates of any major economy (interest rates minus inflation). Several billionaire investors have recently sounded the alarm (Drunkenmiller, Icahn, Soros) and are moving into gold.

I think we'll be lucky to make it to the next election before things really start to unravel. Regardless of who the next president is, the FED will begin taking drastic measures either 2H 2016 or next year.

Oh, I forgot , hundreds of years of economic history says otherwise :roflmao:


I'm still hopeful


That's Keynesianism in a nutshell.... doing more of what already doesn't work hoping it will work this time.... hopeful and clueless
User avatar
buzzkill1
Scooter Commuter (qí jī chē shàng xià bān)
Scooter Commuter (qí jī chē shàng xià bān)
 
Posts: 609
{ AUTHOR_TOPIC }
Joined: 30 Aug 2012, 10:54
In Taiwan since: 10 Aug 2012



Re: Global Economic Death Spiral

Postby BrentGolf » 19 Jun 2016, 16:16

What a hilarious "Good Will Hunting" moment. Literally 95% of what you just wrote, I've read all those articles recently as well. To be honest, I enjoyed them a whole lot more when they were written by people who actually have a focus in such things, but hey if you can't write it, plagiarize it right? :discodance:

The Fed did a really good job acting in the after math of the financial crisis. Better than any other country in the world by far which is why the US recovered so much better, so credit where credit is due. But things can and do change over time, only small minded people hold their views static. Those policies had a shelf life of effectiveness and a few years ago it started to wear off. That was the time to start raising rates. It was never meant to be a permanent solution.

They took their good work in the first 5 years, all the momentum they built up, and blew it. I didn't / don't expect you to be smarter about things, but I did expect Yellen to be. I was wrong about her. We should be well into the rate hikes by now, preparing for the inevitable recession to come.


But ok, you believe rates should stay at zero indefinitely. It seems we'll all have a front row seat to what happens if this keeps up. I promise you the consequences of long term zero interest rates are a lot worse than people are prepared for. This won't end well.
Market leading investment returns with unparalleled risk management. Aspiring to help people rid themselves of the burdens of the financial industry and get on the right track to financial freedom.

http://www.VolatilityTradingStrategies.com

http://www.ProsperitasAssetManagement.com

http://www.BrentGolf.com
BrentGolf
Immune to Breathalizers (jiǔ cèce bù chūlái)
Immune to Breathalizers (jiǔ cèce bù chūlái)
 
Posts: 2011
Joined: 10 Dec 2010, 18:20
Location: Taipei, Taiwan



Re: Global Economic Death Spiral

Postby buzzkill1 » 19 Jun 2016, 22:30

BrentGolf wrote:What a hilarious "Good Will Hunting" moment. Literally 95% of what you just wrote, I've read all those articles recently as well. To be honest, I enjoyed them a whole lot more when they were written by people who actually have a focus in such things, but hey if you can't write it, plagiarize it right? :discodance:


You read "all those articles recently as well"? Haha, now THAT is hilarious. The only part of my post I copied were the numbered facts 1-14. It's from ONE article, and it's just a summary of data releases. You've already demonstrated you don't consider facts and data. Does this mean you're finally looking at the data after all this time? If you could perceive reality you would save yourself a lot of time and confusion. This whole thread all I've been trying to do is share information, sorry, "plagiarizing". I'm data dependent like the FED. And like the FED, I'm just here to help

The Fed did a really good job acting in the after math of the financial crisis.


Yes, it fooled a lot of clueless people who were too lazy to look for themselves


They took their good work in the first 5 years, all the momentum they built up, and blew it.


You still don't get it


But ok, you believe rates should stay at zero indefinitely.


You have horrible reading comprehension


I promise you the consequences of long term zero interest rates are a lot worse than people are prepared for. This won't end well.


That's the first thoughtful thing I've read from you. :bravo: Congrats :homer:

Don't beat yourself up Brent, it's not too late for you to learn basic economic principles. Just start sourcing better information, work on your reading skills, and learn to use your brain :thumbsup:
User avatar
buzzkill1
Scooter Commuter (qí jī chē shàng xià bān)
Scooter Commuter (qí jī chē shàng xià bān)
 
Posts: 609
{ AUTHOR_TOPIC }
Joined: 30 Aug 2012, 10:54
In Taiwan since: 10 Aug 2012



Re: Global Economic Death Spiral

Postby rowland » 20 Jun 2016, 11:12

Macroeconomics has painted itself into a corner. There's nothing left but to double down on denial. Denial is a kind of psychological pain management for the terminally ill.

Would you deny someone dying of pancreatic cancer his Percodan? Just leave him in peace, while we discuss amongst ourselves how we will pay the bills after he's passed. And if he rants incoherently, we should politely ignore him.

There is nothing that can be done to save the cult of the centrally managed economy, and to prolong its existence is to prolong the agony for no good purpose. We need to plan for the future when it is finally dead. How do we rebuild civilization?
Big government is for those who can't handle freedom. Political correctness is for those who can't handle reality.

Gun-free zones are where the gun violence happens. Ban gun-free zones before many more get killed. Also, gun violence in Europe is as bad as in US, and getting worse.

The most bigoted people in the world insist that they are the most open-minded, the cruelest people in the world insist that they are the most compassionate, and the most illogical insist that they are the most logical.

Just because Al Gore says there's a planetary emergency doesn't mean there's a planetary emergency. And just because somebody says it's science doesn't mean it's science.
User avatar
rowland
Second Landlord (èr fáng dōng)
Second Landlord (èr fáng dōng)
 
Posts: 2510
Joined: 07 Mar 2012, 04:37
Location: Taipei



FRIENDLY REMINDER
   Please remember that Forumosa is not responsible for the content that appears on the other side of links that Forumosans post on our forums. As a discussion website, we encourage open and frank debate. We have learned that the most effective way to address questionable claims or accusations on Forumosa is by engaging in a sincere and constructive conversation. To make this website work, we must all feel safe in expressing our opinions, this also means backing up any claims with hard facts, including links to other websites.
   Please also remember that one should not believe everything one reads on the Internet, particularly from websites whose content cannot be easily verified or substantiated. Use your common sense and do not hesitate to ask for proof.
PreviousNext




Return to Money



Who is online

Forumosans browsing this forum: No Forumosans and 0 guests