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Global Economic Death Spiral

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Re: Global Economic Death Spiral

Postby BrentGolf » 20 Jun 2016, 15:29

As I said buzzkill, I read those articles you posted also. The bullet points, the chart, the conclusion. I enjoyed it much better from the original author. He's as wrong as you are, but at least he gets points for giving his own thoughts. If only I could find a way to work in the "how you like dem apples" quote as well from Good Will Hunting. :)


rowland wrote:Macroeconomics has painted itself into a corner. There's nothing left but to double down on denial. Denial is a kind of psychological pain management for the terminally ill.


Tell me about it. We have people who for 6 straight years were 180 degrees wrong on the recovery and missed the entire thing. It really was right in front of us, I'm not sure why so many people missed it but they did. Obviously that makes people bitter when they miss the boat so spectacularly like that.

But strangely after being wrong for 6 straight years they have for some reason decided to now jump on board and start cheerleading the Fed and their zero interest rate policy. It's really hard to imagine this isn't a splintered personality on display here.


There is nothing that can be done to save the cult of the centrally managed economy


Yes there is. Make good decisions, that's what can be done. Zero interest rate policy and quantitative easing was to save the United States from the same fate we've witnessed with dozens of other countries that didn't / don't act in a crisis.

But it was never meant to be permanent. If kept to a 5 year plan it can easily be contained and absorbed by the United States' astronomically high GDP and overall net worth. If left to continue and stagnate far past it's shelf life, the long term damage could be disastrous.

The Fed was right to rescue the economy when it needed it. The Fed is now wrong for continuing the policy further. What the United States desperately needs is a return to simple counter cyclical fiscal policy. Spend when needed, save when it isn't.

But this whole spend when it's needed and spend more when it doesn't should probably stop now. It's enough Yellen. You can raise rates now. The economy is going to be in recession soon regardless of what's done. It's best to just normalize rates and let the chips fall where they may.
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Re: Global Economic Death Spiral

Postby buzzkill1 » 20 Jun 2016, 20:42

How pathetic can you get Brent? YOUR ideas on the economy have been WRONG. Why don't you be a man and admit your failure?

I feel bad for your humiliation, so I'll give you a free tip -- Denial and deception will do nothing to wipe the egg from your face :lol: :hand:
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Re: Global Economic Death Spiral

Postby rowland » 20 Jun 2016, 21:33

The only good decisions to make are to abolish the Federal Reserve's authority to meddle, and maybe stop peddling macroeconomic snake oil in the schools.

Macroeconomics are for people who don't understand how science works, aren't smart enough for calculus, and are too dense to grasp the profound meaning behind double entry bookkeeping.
Big government is for those who can't handle freedom. Political correctness is for those who can't handle reality.

Gun-free zones are where the gun violence happens. Ban gun-free zones before many more get killed. Also, gun violence in Europe is as bad as in US, and getting worse.

The most bigoted people in the world insist that they are the most open-minded, the cruelest people in the world insist that they are the most compassionate, and the most illogical insist that they are the most logical.

Just because Al Gore says there's a planetary emergency doesn't mean there's a planetary emergency. And just because somebody says it's science doesn't mean it's science.
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Re: Global Economic Death Spiral

Postby Winston Smith » 20 Jun 2016, 22:49

During "Quantitative Easing" the annual inflation rate in the U.S. reached 2-3%. In 2015, the year after "QE" ended, it dropped to 0.1%. Right now it's hovering around 1%. At the same time Brexit looms, Abenomics has petered out, Japan and the EU central bank interest rates are currently negative (NIRP) and China's economy is slowing and its sabre rattling increasing. In that global economic environment, with domstic inflation at 1%, it's pretty clear why Yellen hasn't raised interest rates and what would happen if she did.
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Re: Global Economic Death Spiral

Postby BrentGolf » 21 Jun 2016, 16:27

It's a chat forum so we joke, but it's actually pretty serious and involves real life. Psychology is just as important as the investment strategy. There's so many people out there who spent all their emotional capital fighting the recovery every step of the way, and at the end of it they are left with nothing but bitterness. They missed the entire thing. No retirement fund growth, just bitterness at the broken system.

Yeah the system is broken, has been for ages now. Yeah the Fed is screwing up by keeping rates at zero too long, big mistake. Yeah the government is a mess and it's about to get worse with either Trump or Clinton. Yes, obviously the system is broken. But why isn't winning the best solution? Not everybody chooses bitterness.


Image
Image

Is there something wrong with just analyzing the global economy as it actually is in reality, putting our personal opinions and emotions about the obviously broken system aside, and acting accordingly?
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http://www.ProsperitasAssetManagement.com

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Re: Global Economic Death Spiral

Postby rowland » 21 Jun 2016, 17:32

Someone gullible enough to believe that the government has our best interests at heart has no standing to preach about emotionalism and reality.

Also, never trust anyone who's trying to shill for a hedge fund.
Big government is for those who can't handle freedom. Political correctness is for those who can't handle reality.

Gun-free zones are where the gun violence happens. Ban gun-free zones before many more get killed. Also, gun violence in Europe is as bad as in US, and getting worse.

The most bigoted people in the world insist that they are the most open-minded, the cruelest people in the world insist that they are the most compassionate, and the most illogical insist that they are the most logical.

Just because Al Gore says there's a planetary emergency doesn't mean there's a planetary emergency. And just because somebody says it's science doesn't mean it's science.
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Yellen Hates Economic Growth!

Postby Winston Smith » 22 Jun 2016, 00:54

Bitter Fed continues to wage war on progress:

Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet L. Yellen expressed hope Tuesday morning that the slowdown in the U.S. job market would prove temporary, but she emphasized that the central bank would be cautious in raising interest rates again.

Yellen, testifying before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, acknowledged that hiring has dropped off sharply in recent months but also pointed to early signs that wages are beginning to rise after years of stagnation. She said she is "optimistic" that the progress in employment will continue. . . .

The Fed is responsible for charting the course for the nation’s economy, with the dual mission to keep prices stable and strengthen employment.It does that by adjusting the influential federal funds rate. A higher rate helps curb inflation by making borrowing money more expensive, which discourages spending and investment and reins in economic growth. A lower rate means that money is cheap, stimulating purchases by households and businesses. That helps boost employment and speeds up the economy.

The Fed chief's assessment comes less than a week after the Fed unanimously voted to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged. The central bank raised rates in December for the first time since the Great Recession but has not done so again amid persistent concerns about the health of the global economy.
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Re: Global Economic Death Spiral

Postby Winston Smith » 06 Jul 2016, 20:44

No wonder gold is on a tear. When investors have to pay the government to borrow operating capital from them it's time to get seriously concernd about the wheels coming off the global economic system.

20-year JGB yields turn negative for first time
Tokyo (Dow Jones) -- The yield on Japan's benchmark 20-year government bond Wednesday fell below zero for the first time ever and the 30-year yield was just 0.015%, as investors seek safety after Britain's vote to leave the European Union.

The 10-year Japanese government bond yield also fell, hitting a record low of minus 0.275%.
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