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will there be a drop in housing prices?

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Re: will there be a drop in housing prices?

Postby Mr He » 07 Jan 2016, 07:32

headhonchoII wrote:
You get exemptions if it's your primary residence, obviously what will happen is a family member will be allocated to
Each residence, so I'm not sure how effective the changes will be in practice.


But with the hukou system, that wllbe hard in practice. Especially, if you only have say 1 kid. That gives you 2 residences at the very most.
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Re: will there be a drop in housing prices?

Postby headhonchoII » 07 Jan 2016, 08:17

Yes, but couldn't the grandparents and parents and each kid have one residence. I'm not sure if married parents can have an individual residence each, maybe they can if they register the property under their name?
All they need to do to establish primary residence is probably send a few bills perhaps..like my landlord?
That means probably 4 houses and up to 8 (if including grandparents) for average household. 4 would cover almost all families in practice. It's quite easy to move people between Hukous I believe , just need some property to back it
I think. May cause complications with inheritance though!ninwoudlnt even bet you need to move the hukou for sure.
Anyway I'm always skeptical about the loopholes, usually they've been placed there after legislative review. This loophole
Seems to mean almost no household will pay capital gains tax for gains under 4 million NTD. That's still extraordinarily generous given the taxes they place on our salaried income.
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Re: will there be a drop in housing prices?

Postby Icon » 25 Jul 2016, 10:57

I have noticed quite a lot of rebuilding proyects have stalled in recent months.

In our hood, the company gave up on our older flats and aparently bought and had the delas sealed for the newer side. Lo and behold, the company cracked before even setting out the first brick. So we are stuck with the 30 to 40 plus year old crumbling flats, being sold at ridiculous prices. One million per ping asking price.

A friend of mine in Sanchong, who was kicked out of her family home by her brother when a company made an overture to buy their block -even though she took care of her sick parents all their lives, they left the house under the brother's name because he's a man, but that is anotehr story- told me recently that her bro had ofered her to rent the place at a very high rate, to compensate as the company who intended to but had goen banckrupt, too. So all the neighbors vacated and cleaned up the premises... just to be left hanging.

So, we still have these decrepit, dangerous structures everywhere. In summary, no Christmas in July, no easy money coming up. No renovation, either. But one wonders again as to the resources alloted. Example: no expansion of the roads or water and sewage systems. More and more people concentrated on less and less space.

I also noticed the new buildings in my area are being placed in, ehem, rezoned areas. Empty spaces that use dto harbor factories. Lo and behold, way easier to build there without dealing with the neighborhood associations. I would just be a bit concerned about the land situation in terms of strenght. It is well known in the hood which buildings have been beuilt on fillinsg and these new structuires on empty spaces are within what the neighbors call the flood line -where it used to regularly flood. Fascinating.
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Re: will there be a drop in housing prices?

Postby headhonchoII » 25 Jul 2016, 11:52

I was just commenting the same thing when walking around Jingmei last night. Row after row of decrepit third world's buildings with each apartment worth a million USD. Meanwhile the river still seems to stink the same as it did 15 years ago and the bridges look like they were whacked together in a hurry. And Jingmei is the NICE area in Taipei city with the good schools and extra budget.

Taiwan and Taipei suffer from terrible over priced concrete crap and disastrous planning laws and yes many greedy sods. It indeed is a rare site when a whole block of gongyu get knocked down or even refaced or remodeled for that matter!

There is actually a lack of new quality accommodation in Taipei as they are building in the suburbs or the old factory zones like you mentioned.

Looks like crap and this is who just came back from China..Chinese cities look SO much better these days it's embarrassing really. I'm talking about the roads, the paths in many cases, the commercial real estates and the new apartment blocks.
Invest some f$&kinf money in the place people!
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Re: will there be a drop in housing prices?

Postby marasan » 25 Jul 2016, 12:15

headhonchoII wrote:Looks like crap and this is who just came back from China..Chinese cities look SO much better these days it's embarrassing really. I'm talking about the roads, the paths in many cases, the commercial real estates and the new apartment blocks.
Invest some f$&kinf money in the place people!


I'm sure you know this, but people with money often just invest on the interior and don't really care how things look from the outside. A person I know spent 4 million on interior redecoration not long ago. And he's not rich or anything. From the outside, you would never know. There isn't even an elevator in his building.

I'm not disagreeing with your sentiment. I'm just saying that things aren't really what they seem to a casual observer.
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Re: will there be a drop in housing prices?

Postby headhonchoII » 25 Jul 2016, 13:31

Certainly the odd house owner spends silly money on dodgy interiors :), although I'd say most live in rather simple conditions to be honest.

The exterior of apartment blocks and commercial offices is a disgrace. Even headquarters of major Taiwanese banks and insurance companies look extremely shabby on Nanjing road. Some are getting a make over but most are not.

There has been investment is some stuff like subway stations but Old residential neighborhoods really don't seem to get any spending from private or public sources. Cables still strewn on poles down the streets. Entrance doors to gonggu with cheap locks and unpainted since decades ago. Cheap cheap cheap.
Schools aren't getting enough investment either, most look awful especially in the crowded Taipei area, lack open space and they have not increased teacher to student ratio even though number of kids has been dropping a lot.
Most of the public universities also look like crap and their building are too old and run down.
Keelung (Jilong) looks like a wasteland that time forgot in large part.
Failing to invest in the kids education and welfare is a massive issue for me. It shows the mindset is about saving money and keeping the pot going for a couple of decades for all the Retired public workers until it runs dry. Young people don't have a good future here because there is no investment in them.
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Re: will there be a drop in housing prices?

Postby Icon » 25 Jul 2016, 13:54

marasan wrote:
headhonchoII wrote:Looks like crap and this is who just came back from China..Chinese cities look SO much better these days it's embarrassing really. I'm talking about the roads, the paths in many cases, the commercial real estates and the new apartment blocks.
Invest some f$&kinf money in the place people!


I'm sure you know this, but people with money often just invest on the interior and don't really care how things look from the outside. A person I know spent 4 million on interior redecoration not long ago. And he's not rich or anything. From the outside, you would never know. There isn't even an elevator in his building.

I'm not disagreeing with your sentiment. I'm just saying that things aren't really what they seem to a casual observer.


TBH, 4 million in an ugly gongwu is way overpriced. Even if it was 70 ping. I often watch the interior design shows and I scratch my head. Does it look original? is it a piece of art? Are they using unique materials, heck, safe materials? It seems the same flat dark artificial style. neo rococo furniture. Icky. If at least they had a jacuzzi or something.

My dad was telling me they took down my sister's room in the ol house and extended the bathroom with a jacuzzi, opening up to the garden which has a lovely Spanish style veranda. Now you're talking.

Indeed, in Taiwan there is this fear of the fuiture, fear of safety -being kidnapped, fear what fuels people to save, save and keep saving. Indeed, if you get 18% from your money sitting there, why bother? If you do not know if you will keep your job, why spend? Then comes a scammer and takes it all away...

One example: The masses invest in huge insurance premiums, but the investment companies themselves may put their money abroad, may take the money to the global markets, but none gets back to Taiwan. They used to have developments financed by them. Not anymore.

The real estate industry is at dodgy as those phone scammers.
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